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Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 8, 2026.

October 8, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Minnesota Wild

9-3-2

2
Final
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 54.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Minnesota Wild logo
Away team

Minnesota Wild

45.9%
Fair American +118
Fair decimal 2.18
Best market +136 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 42.4%
Edge +3.5%
Expected value +8.3%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

54.1%
Fair American -118
Fair decimal 1.85
Best market -145 · BetMGM
Market implied 59.2%
Edge -5.1%
Expected value -8.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 8, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Minnesota Wild

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

44:32 together · 3 games

xG share57.0%
Corsi for / against
52 / 36
Fenwick for / against
37 / 28
Corsi share
59.1%
Fenwick share
56.9%
xG for / against
2.22 / 1.68
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

33:26 together · 3 games

xG share55.3%
Corsi for / against
42 / 27
Fenwick for / against
29 / 18
Corsi share
60.9%
Fenwick share
61.7%
xG for / against
1.50 / 1.21
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jesper Wallstedt

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 6

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
75
Save %
93.3
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
32.0

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 5

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
60
Save %
90.0
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
26.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
2.64
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
-0.27

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.55
xG against / game
2.41
xG differential / game
1.15

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
54.3
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.4
Faceoff win %
48.0
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
65.3
Corsi share (%)
56.6
Fenwick share (%)
57.7
Faceoff win %
48.2
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 8.9% · Avg distance: 29.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
20Points15
0.714Points %0.682
44Goals for38
31Goals against34
13Goal differential4
W3Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Minnesota Wild MIN road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
10Games5
5Wins5
12Points10
6Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
7-2-1Record7-2-1
15Points15
33Goals for37
23Goals against29
10Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Minnesota Wild MIN 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 5 wins
Total goals36 – 35
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.6 / 3.5
Shots per game27.8 / 30.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 23 - 24 View
Mar 3, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 5 25 - 22 View
Nov 1, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 5 30 - 22 View
Oct 24, 2024
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 18 - 26 View
Jan 18, 2024
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 7 33 - 38 View
Jan 4, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 1 30 - 23 View
Jan 24, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 35 - 39 View
Jan 4, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 5 35 - 33 View
Nov 28, 2021
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 4 30 - 37 View
Nov 21, 2021
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 32 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MIN TBL