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Minnesota Wild vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 11, 2027

NHL matchup

Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 11, 2027.

March 11, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Minnesota Wild

9-3-2

51.7% Model pick
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

48.3%
Model V2 pick: Minnesota Wild at 51.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Minnesota Wild logo
Away team

Minnesota Wild

51.7%
Fair American -107
Fair decimal 1.93
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

48.3%
Fair American +107
Fair decimal 2.07
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 11, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

122:56 together · 10 games

xG share70.7%
Corsi for / against
156 / 79
Fenwick for / against
120 / 63
Corsi share
66.4%
Fenwick share
65.6%
xG for / against
9.91 / 4.10
Defense pair

95:18 together · 10 games

xG share68.4%
Corsi for / against
126 / 62
Fenwick for / against
98 / 42
Corsi share
67.0%
Fenwick share
70.0%
xG for / against
7.48 / 3.46
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.8%
Corsi for / against
34 / 42
Fenwick for / against
21 / 38
Corsi share
44.7%
Fenwick share
35.6%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.46
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jesper Wallstedt

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
31.7

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
3.93
xG against / game
2.71
xG differential / game
1.22

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.72
xG differential / game
0.13

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.7
Corsi share (%)
55.3
Fenwick share (%)
57.8
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 32.2 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
20Points16
0.714Points %0.615
44Goals for39
31Goals against38
13Goal differential1
W3Current streakL1
Road versus home
Minnesota Wild MIN road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
10Games7
5Wins5
12Points10
6Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
33Goals for29
23Goals against30
10Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Minnesota Wild MIN 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 4 wins
Total goals28 – 28
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game2.8 / 2.8
Shots per game28.8 / 34.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 4, 2026
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 1 23 - 34 View
Dec 13, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 3 36 - 25 View
Feb 1, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
0 - 6 16 - 52 View
Dec 29, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 1 37 - 31 View
Apr 2, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 3 32 - 19 View
Nov 18, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 25 - 31 View
Dec 18, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 4 28 - 23 View
Oct 27, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 2 40 - 29 View
Feb 22, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 43 - 34 View
Nov 2, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 5 28 - 43 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MIN OTT