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Florida Panthers vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 22, 2026

NHL matchup

Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 22, 2026.

October 22, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Florida Panthers

7-4-2

0
Final
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 58.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Florida Panthers logo
Away team

Florida Panthers

41.3%
Fair American +142
Fair decimal 2.42
Best market -101 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 50.2%
Edge -8.9%
Expected value -17.8%
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

58.7%
Fair American -142
Fair decimal 1.7
Best market -113 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 53.1%
Edge +5.6%
Expected value +10.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 22, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Florida Panthers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

129:23 together · 10 games

xG share59.0%
Corsi for / against
129 / 87
Fenwick for / against
92 / 67
Corsi share
59.7%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
4.89 / 3.39
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:03 together · 8 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
69 / 58
Fenwick for / against
51 / 42
Corsi share
54.3%
Fenwick share
54.8%
xG for / against
3.06 / 3.03
Defense pair

109:36 together · 9 games

xG share57.8%
Corsi for / against
110 / 99
Fenwick for / against
81 / 65
Corsi share
52.6%
Fenwick share
55.5%
xG for / against
6.50 / 4.75
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Florida Panthers

Jacob Markstrom 66.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jacob Markstrom?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+0.632
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.506
Goalie team start share
+0.491
Days since last start
+0.372
Started last game
-0.320
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Pittsburgh Penguins

Arturs Silovs 70.0%
Other eligible goalies
  • Sergei Murashov30.0%

Why Arturs Silovs?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.564
Team win pct before
+0.558
Prev save pct
-0.468
Started last game
-0.342
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.226
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Akira Schmid

Florida Panthers · Last start: Oct 21

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
128
Save %
86.7
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
27.3

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 19

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
84.8
Goals allowed
21
Close-range shots %
35.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Florida Panthers

xG for / game
3.47
xG against / game
2.83
xG differential / game
0.64

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.28
xG against / game
3.30
xG differential / game
-0.02

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Florida Panthers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.7
Corsi share (%)
56.7
Fenwick share (%)
54.5
Faceoff win %
45.6
Penalties / game
6.0

Shots / game: 28.3 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.7
Corsi share (%)
50.0
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
44.6
Penalties / game
3.3

Shots / game: 27.4 · Shooting: 11.7% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Florida Panthers FLA
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
16Points11
0.615Points %0.458
39Goals for40
37Goals against40
2Goal differential0
W2Current streakW2
Road versus home
Florida Panthers FLA road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
10Games5
5Wins4
12Points8
-1Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Florida Panthers FLA
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
6-4-0Record3-6-1
12Points7
33Goals for27
30Goals against35
3Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Florida Panthers FLA 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
Total goals35 – 35
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.5 / 3.5
Shots per game32.5 / 26.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 5, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 31 - 23 View
Apr 4, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 9 23 - 31 View
Oct 23, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
5 - 3 17 - 37 View
Mar 23, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
3 - 4 27 - 31 View
Jan 3, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
2 - 3 31 - 33 View
Dec 3, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 5 41 - 16 View
Feb 14, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2 23 - 27 View
Jan 26, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 2 31 - 37 View
Dec 8, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 3 26 - 33 View
Mar 4, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 4 32 - 42 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings FLA PIT