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Florida Panthers vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 21, 2026

NHL matchup

Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 21, 2026.

October 21, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Florida Panthers

7-4-2

1 Model pick
Final
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

5
Model V2 pick: Florida Panthers at 55.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Florida Panthers logo
Away team

Florida Panthers

55.3%
Fair American -124
Fair decimal 1.81
Best market -108 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.9%
Edge +3.4%
Expected value +6.5%
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

44.7%
Fair American +124
Fair decimal 2.24
Best market -105 · BetRivers
Market implied 51.2%
Edge -6.5%
Expected value -12.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 21, 2026.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.73
ROI
-18.3%

Value Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
0.80
ROI
13.3%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Florida Panthers

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

118:23 together · 9 games

xG share60.7%
Corsi for / against
122 / 79
Fenwick for / against
86 / 62
Corsi share
60.7%
Fenwick share
58.1%
xG for / against
4.66 / 3.02
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

55:00 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
49 / 66
Fenwick for / against
35 / 51
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
40.7%
xG for / against
2.16 / 2.40
Defense pair

93:18 together · 9 games

xG share52.6%
Corsi for / against
92 / 100
Fenwick for / against
68 / 66
Corsi share
47.9%
Fenwick share
50.7%
xG for / against
4.70 / 4.24
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Florida Panthers

Jacob Markstrom 63.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jacob Markstrom?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.666
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.650
Days since last start
+0.305
Won previous appearance
+0.234
Started last game
-0.231
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 21, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Ottawa Senators

Linus Ullmark 82.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Linus Ullmark?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.075
Days since last start
+0.475
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.412
Started last game
-0.273
Team win pct before
-0.241
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 21, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Markstrom

Florida Panthers · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
88.2
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
24.5

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
125
Save %
94.4
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
25.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Florida Panthers

xG for / game
3.66
xG against / game
2.85
xG differential / game
0.81

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.81
xG against / game
2.84
xG differential / game
-0.03

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Florida Panthers

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
66.1
Corsi share (%)
57.7
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
46.4
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 11.4% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Ottawa Senators

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
50.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
46.8
Faceoff win %
51.4
Penalties / game
4.56

Shots / game: 23.1 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Florida Panthers FLA
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
16Points16
0.615Points %0.615
39Goals for39
37Goals against38
2Goal differential1
W2Current streakL1
Road versus home
Florida Panthers FLA road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
10Games7
5Wins5
12Points10
-1Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Florida Panthers FLA
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
6-4-0Record6-4-0
12Points12
33Goals for29
30Goals against30
3Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Florida Panthers FLA 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
Total goals33 – 21
Goal differential +12 / -12
Goals per game3.3 / 2.1
Shots per game31.4 / 26.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 9, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 5 23 - 28 View
Mar 31, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
3 - 6 26 - 29 View
Jan 10, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 21 - 19 View
Oct 11, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
2 - 6 28 - 27 View
Apr 5, 2025
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
0 - 3 39 - 22 View
Feb 8, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 5 27 - 48 View
Oct 10, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 3 32 - 31 View
Apr 9, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
0 - 2 26 - 30 View
Apr 4, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 0 31 - 30 View
Feb 20, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
2 - 3 30 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings FLA OTT