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Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 17, 2026.

December 17, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

49.8%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

50.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 50.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

49.8%
Fair American +101
Fair decimal 2.01
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

50.2%
Fair American -101
Fair decimal 1.99
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

112:48 together · 10 games

xG share51.4%
Corsi for / against
115 / 99
Fenwick for / against
80 / 60
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
57.1%
xG for / against
3.84 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Michal Postava

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
36
Save %
88.9
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
27.8

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
3.16
xG differential / game
0.20

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.6
Corsi share (%)
52.2
Fenwick share (%)
52.9
Faceoff win %
49.0
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
13Points12
0.542Points %0.600
33Goals for34
37Goals against32
-4Goal differential2
W1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
5Games7
2Wins5
6Points10
-1Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
5-2-3Record6-4-0
13Points12
31Goals for34
32Goals against32
-1Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 5 wins
Total goals33 – 29
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game3.3 / 2.9
Shots per game29.1 / 26.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 29, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 3 23 - 21 View
Dec 21, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 33 - 27 View
Dec 20, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 2 41 - 26 View
Mar 18, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 24 - 26 View
Mar 7, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 5 19 - 28 View
Dec 29, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 27 - 27 View
Apr 9, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 1 23 - 43 View
Mar 26, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 4 33 - 30 View
Feb 27, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 8 21 - 31 View
Feb 21, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 1 25 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET WSH