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Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 1, 2027

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 1, 2027.

March 1, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3

41.1%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

58.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 58.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

41.1%
Fair American +143
Fair decimal 2.43
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

58.9%
Fair American -143
Fair decimal 1.7
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 1, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 1. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:07 together · 10 games

xG share53.5%
Corsi for / against
105 / 87
Fenwick for / against
73 / 51
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
3.75 / 3.26
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
116
Save %
84.5
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
30.2

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 1, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.46
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
0.31

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 1, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.7
Corsi share (%)
53.3
Fenwick share (%)
54.0
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
11Points16
0.500Points %0.615
29Goals for50
34Goals against41
-5Goal differential9
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
4Games8
1Wins4
4Points9
-2Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-3-3Record6-2-2
11Points14
29Goals for44
32Goals against34
-3Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 3 wins
Total goals33 – 28
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.3 / 2.8
Shots per game29.0 / 27.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 21, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 41 - 31 View
Dec 28, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 27 - 36 View
Oct 13, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 15 - 40 View
Oct 11, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 6 23 - 35 View
Apr 17, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 34 - 20 View
Dec 27, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 2 23 - 25 View
Dec 14, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 25 - 26 View
Nov 8, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3 22 - 20 View
Apr 13, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 4 32 - 36 View
Jan 14, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 24 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET TOR