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Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 21, 2026

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 21, 2026.

January 21, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3

2
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

1
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game. View final boxscore
Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

110:15 together · 10 games

xG share48.3%
Corsi for / against
93 / 119
Fenwick for / against
70 / 74
Corsi share
43.9%
Fenwick share
48.6%
xG for / against
4.82 / 5.16
Defense pair

173:44 together · 10 games

xG share45.7%
Corsi for / against
140 / 166
Fenwick for / against
103 / 109
Corsi share
45.8%
Fenwick share
48.6%
xG for / against
5.91 / 7.02
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

96:47 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
82 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 82
Corsi share
43.9%
Fenwick share
42.7%
xG for / against
4.58 / 5.59
Defense pair

77:22 together · 8 games

xG share43.3%
Corsi for / against
71 / 94
Fenwick for / against
47 / 67
Corsi share
43.0%
Fenwick share
41.2%
xG for / against
2.86 / 3.74
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Jan 18

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
93.0
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
30.2

Joseph Woll

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Jan 19

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
157
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
29.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
2.80
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
-0.29

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.93
xG against / game
3.58
xG differential / game
-0.65

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.2
Corsi share (%)
45.6
Fenwick share (%)
46.1
Faceoff win %
45.2
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 22.9 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.3
Corsi share (%)
43.3
Fenwick share (%)
43.5
Faceoff win %
56.8
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 26.8 · Shooting: 13.8% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
11Points16
0.500Points %0.615
29Goals for50
34Goals against41
-5Goal differential9
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
4Games8
1Wins4
4Points9
-2Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-3-3Record6-2-2
11Points14
29Goals for44
32Goals against34
-3Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
Total goals33 – 30
Goal differential +3 / -3
Goals per game3.3 / 3.0
Shots per game27.8 / 27.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 28, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 27 - 36 View
Oct 13, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 15 - 40 View
Oct 11, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 6 23 - 35 View
Apr 17, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 34 - 20 View
Dec 27, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 2 23 - 25 View
Dec 14, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 25 - 26 View
Nov 8, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3 22 - 20 View
Apr 13, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 4 32 - 36 View
Jan 14, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 24 - 30 View
Nov 17, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 29 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET TOR