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Detroit Red Wings vs Seattle Kraken prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 20, 2026

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 20, 2026.

October 20, 2026 · 8:40 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

3
Final
Home

Seattle Kraken

7-4-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Seattle Kraken at 61.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

38.3%
Fair American +161
Fair decimal 2.61
Best market -104 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.0%
Edge -12.7%
Expected value -24.9%
Calculate value
Seattle Kraken logo
Home team

Seattle Kraken

61.7%
Fair American -161
Fair decimal 1.62
Best market -108 · Bovada
Market implied 51.9%
Edge +9.8%
Expected value +18.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 20, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

57:09 together · 8 games

xG share58.6%
Corsi for / against
61 / 57
Fenwick for / against
44 / 26
Corsi share
51.7%
Fenwick share
62.9%
xG for / against
2.12 / 1.50
All observed combinations

Seattle Kraken

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

135:06 together · 9 games

xG share42.7%
Corsi for / against
107 / 194
Fenwick for / against
81 / 136
Corsi share
35.5%
Fenwick share
37.3%
xG for / against
5.57 / 7.48
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Detroit Red Wings

John Gibson 55.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why John Gibson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.031
Days since last start
+0.326
Won previous appearance
+0.307
Started last game
-0.278
Team win pct before
+0.245
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Seattle Kraken

Philipp Grubauer 63.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Philipp Grubauer?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Won previous appearance
-0.243
Started last game
+0.237
Team win pct before
-0.228
Goalie start pct before
-0.172
Team played yesterday
-0.172
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
32.6

Joey Daccord

Seattle Kraken · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
152
Save %
88.2
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
34.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.31
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.13

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Seattle Kraken

xG for / game
2.96
xG against / game
3.54
xG differential / game
-0.58

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
62.2
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
51.7
Faceoff win %
48.5
Penalties / game
4.75

Shots / game: 30.5 · Shooting: 7.8% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft

Seattle Kraken

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
50.6
Corsi share (%)
42.8
Fenwick share (%)
44.9
Faceoff win %
51.8
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 14.3% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA
13Points15
0.542Points %0.625
33Goals for45
37Goals against42
-4Goal differential3
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA home
5Games5
2Wins3
6Points6
-1Goal differential0
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA
5-2-3Record6-3-1
13Points13
31Goals for38
32Goals against38
-1Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Seattle Kraken SEA 5 wins
Total goals38 – 38
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.8 / 3.8
Shots per game28.9 / 31.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 9, 2026
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 3 24 - 40 View
Dec 6, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
4 - 3 25 - 27 View
Nov 18, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 22 - 27 View
Feb 4, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
5 - 4 40 - 27 View
Jan 12, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 6 33 - 23 View
Feb 19, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
4 - 3 32 - 41 View
Oct 24, 2023
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 4 38 - 27 View
Mar 2, 2023
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 4 37 - 29 View
Feb 18, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
2 - 4 23 - 26 View
Mar 19, 2022
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
2 - 4 23 - 42 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET SEA