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Detroit Red Wings vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 14, 2027

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 14, 2027.

March 14, 2027 · 1:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

46.9%
at
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

53.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 53.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

46.9%
Fair American +113
Fair decimal 2.13
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

53.1%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.88
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 14, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

112:48 together · 10 games

xG share51.4%
Corsi for / against
115 / 99
Fenwick for / against
80 / 60
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
57.1%
xG for / against
3.84 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Michal Postava

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
35
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
28.6

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 14, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
3.16
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 14, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.5
Corsi share (%)
52.2
Fenwick share (%)
52.8
Faceoff win %
49.0
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
13Points11
0.542Points %0.458
33Goals for40
37Goals against40
-4Goal differential0
W1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
5Games5
2Wins4
6Points8
-1Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
5-2-3Record3-6-1
13Points7
31Goals for27
32Goals against35
-1Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 7 wins
Total goals30 – 43
Goal differential -13 / +13
Goals per game3.0 / 4.3
Shots per game25.7 / 30.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 31, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 5 23 - 31 View
Jan 3, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 1 31 - 12 View
Jan 1, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 4 27 - 31 View
Dec 31, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 25 - 25 View
Nov 13, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 2 31 - 33 View
Oct 10, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 3 28 - 32 View
Apr 11, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 6 30 - 27 View
Mar 17, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 6 28 - 38 View
Oct 18, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 6 33 - 29 View
Apr 8, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 1 28 - 20 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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