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Detroit Red Wings vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 4, 2027.

April 4, 2027 · 2:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

46.6%
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

53.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 53.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

46.6%
Fair American +115
Fair decimal 2.15
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

53.4%
Fair American -115
Fair decimal 1.87
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Apr 4, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

112:48 together · 10 games

xG share51.4%
Corsi for / against
115 / 99
Fenwick for / against
80 / 60
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
57.1%
xG for / against
3.84 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 43
Fenwick for / against
21 / 39
Corsi share
44.2%
Fenwick share
35.0%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Michal Postava

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
35
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
28.6

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
3.16
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.73
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.5
Corsi share (%)
52.2
Fenwick share (%)
52.8
Faceoff win %
49.0
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
13Points16
0.542Points %0.615
33Goals for39
37Goals against38
-4Goal differential1
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
5Games7
2Wins5
6Points10
-1Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-2-3Record6-4-0
13Points12
31Goals for29
32Goals against30
-1Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 5 wins
Total goals28 – 26
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game2.8 / 2.6
Shots per game30.5 / 27.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 6, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 5 25 - 36 View
Mar 24, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 21 - 34 View
Feb 26, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 1 20 - 27 View
Jan 18, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 4 22 - 34 View
Jan 5, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 3 20 - 38 View
Mar 27, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 3 32 - 34 View
Mar 10, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 49 - 23 View
Jan 7, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 33 - 33 View
Dec 5, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 20 - 32 View
Jan 31, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 25 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET OTT