Forward trio
114:31 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 123 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 72
- Corsi share
- 55.2%
- Fenwick share
- 56.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.20 / 5.65
Detroit Red Wings vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 26, 2026
NHL matchup
Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 26, 2026.
February 26, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
87:09 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 77 / 64
- Fenwick for / against
- 55 / 37
- Corsi share
- 54.6%
- Fenwick share
- 59.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.22 / 2.13
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
94:00 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 75
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 49
- Corsi share
- 56.1%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.77 / 3.07
Defense pair
141:26 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 134 / 96
- Fenwick for / against
- 100 / 71
- Corsi share
- 58.3%
- Fenwick share
- 58.5%
- xG for / against
- 7.57 / 3.14
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
John Gibson
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Feb 4
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 106
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 22.6
James Reimer
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Feb 5
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 98
- Save %
- 84.7
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 31.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 3.26
- xG against / game
- 3.02
- xG differential / game
- 0.24
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 2.47
- xG differential / game
- 0.70
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 65.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.1
- Faceoff win %
- 53.7
- Penalties / game
- 2.8
Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 8.4% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.1
- Faceoff win %
- 54.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.3
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DET
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 16 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 33 | Goals for | 39 |
| 37 | Goals against | 38 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
DET road
|
Metric |
OTT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 7 |
| 2 | Wins | 5 |
| 6 | Points | 10 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
DET
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-2-3 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 13 | Points | 12 |
| 31 | Goals for | 29 |
| 32 | Goals against | 30 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DET
4 wins
10
games reviewed
OTT
6 wins
Total goals29 – 31
Goal differential
-2
/
+2
Goals per game2.9 / 3.1
Shots per game31.0 / 31.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
3 - 4 | 22 - 34 | View |
| Jan 5, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 3 | 20 - 38 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
4 - 3 | 32 - 34 | View |
| Mar 10, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 49 - 23 | View |
| Jan 7, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
2 - 3 | 33 - 33 | View |
| Dec 5, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 20 - 32 | View |
| Jan 31, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 25 | View |
| Dec 9, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
5 - 1 | 37 - 31 | View |
| Nov 16, 2023 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 41 - 34 | View |
| Oct 21, 2023 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 2 | 23 - 37 | View |