Away team
Detroit Red Wings
38.6%
Fair American
+159
Fair decimal
2.59
Detroit Red Wings vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2027
NHL matchup
Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 28, 2027.
March 28, 2027
· 5:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 61.4%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
61.4%
Fair American
-159
Fair decimal
1.63
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 28, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.53
- ROI
- -42.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.53
- ROI
- -42.2%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -1.97
- ROI
- -21.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
78:32 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 66
- Fenwick for / against
- 68 / 48
- Corsi share
- 58.8%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.86 / 3.47
Defense pair
100:07 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 105 / 87
- Fenwick for / against
- 73 / 51
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.75 / 3.26
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 45
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 35
- Corsi share
- 68.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.26 / 1.88
Defense pair
108:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.88 / 4.78
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Detroit Red Wings
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
John Gibson
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 116
- Save %
- 84.5
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 30.2
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 3.46
- xG against / game
- 3.15
- xG differential / game
- 0.31
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 64.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.0
- Faceoff win %
- 49.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.5
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DET
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 14 |
| 0.500 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 29 | Goals for | 36 |
| 34 | Goals against | 36 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 0 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
DET road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 4 | Points | 7 |
| -2 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
DET
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 11 | Points | 12 |
| 29 | Goals for | 33 |
| 32 | Goals against | 34 |
| -3 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DET
5 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
5 wins
Total goals27 – 30
Goal differential
-3
/
+3
Goals per game2.7 / 3.0
Shots per game31.8 / 26.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
0 - 1 | 30 - 30 | View |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 3 | 33 - 28 | View |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 0 | 24 - 27 | View |
| Oct 9, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
5 - 1 | 17 - 31 | View |
| Apr 8, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 4 | 36 - 21 | View |
| Jan 23, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
2 - 4 | 29 - 45 | View |
| Dec 21, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 5 | 21 - 24 | View |
| Dec 20, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
4 - 3 | 33 - 28 | View |
| Apr 16, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 4 | 40 - 33 | View |
| Apr 15, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
4 - 5 | 21 - 35 | View |