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Detroit Red Wings vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 4, 2027.

January 4, 2027 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3

39.2%
at
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

60.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 60.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

39.2%
Fair American +155
Fair decimal 2.55
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 4, 2027.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:07 together · 10 games

xG share53.5%
Corsi for / against
105 / 87
Fenwick for / against
73 / 51
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
3.75 / 3.26
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
116
Save %
84.5
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
30.2

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
103
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.46
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
0.31

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.7
Corsi share (%)
53.3
Fenwick share (%)
54.0
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
11Points15
0.500Points %0.682
29Goals for32
34Goals against20
-5Goal differential12
L1Current streakW5
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
4Games6
1Wins4
4Points8
-2Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
4-3-3Record7-2-1
11Points15
29Goals for32
32Goals against16
-3Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 8 wins
Total goals29 – 44
Goal differential -15 / +15
Goals per game2.9 / 4.4
Shots per game28.8 / 28.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 14, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 24 - 24 View
Dec 23, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 4 22 - 25 View
Apr 14, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 6 28 - 37 View
Jan 19, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 4 34 - 25 View
Jan 23, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 4 38 - 34 View
Dec 11, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 6 30 - 35 View
Apr 10, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 1 22 - 20 View
Dec 10, 2022
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 26 - 33 View
Jan 21, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 4 32 - 28 View
Nov 16, 2021
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 5 30 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET DAL