Away team
Detroit Red Wings
57.4%
Fair American
-135
Fair decimal
1.74
Detroit Red Wings vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 28, 2026.
December 28, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Detroit Red Wings at 57.4%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Buffalo Sabres
42.6%
Fair American
+135
Fair decimal
2.35
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 28, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.53
- ROI
- -42.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -0.98
- ROI
- -14.1%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -1.97
- ROI
- -21.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
74:28 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 89 / 63
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 46
- Corsi share
- 58.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.23 / 3.44
Defense pair
112:48 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 115 / 99
- Fenwick for / against
- 80 / 60
- Corsi share
- 53.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.84 / 3.62
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 46
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 34
- Corsi share
- 67.1%
- Fenwick share
- 64.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair
82:50 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 49
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.17 / 3.45
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Detroit Red Wings
Expected starter unavailable.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Michal Postava
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 35
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 28.6
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 3.35
- xG against / game
- 3.16
- xG differential / game
- 0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DET
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 13 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 33 | Goals for | 33 |
| 37 | Goals against | 41 |
| -4 | Goal differential | -8 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
DET road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
DET
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-2-3 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 13 | Points | 11 |
| 31 | Goals for | 26 |
| 32 | Goals against | 32 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DET
6 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
4 wins
Total goals39 – 34
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.9 / 3.4
Shots per game26.1 / 30.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 20 - 30 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
5 - 4 | 27 - 28 | View |
| Oct 22, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 4 | 31 - 31 | View |
| Mar 12, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
3 - 7 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Dec 9, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
6 - 5 | 31 - 21 | View |
| Nov 2, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Oct 26, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 5 | 25 - 39 | View |
| Apr 7, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 3 | 38 - 24 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 4 | 26 - 26 | View |
| Mar 12, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 7 | 24 - 39 | View |