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Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 10, 2026.

October 10, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Dallas Stars

7-4-1

1
Final
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 56.8% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Dallas Stars logo
Away team

Dallas Stars

43.2%
Fair American +131
Fair decimal 2.31
Best market -177 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 63.9%
Edge -20.7%
Expected value -32.4%
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

56.8%
Fair American -131
Fair decimal 1.76
Best market +160 · Bovada
Market implied 38.5%
Edge +18.3%
Expected value +47.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 10, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.45
ROI
-22.5%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.61
ROI
-15.3%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Dallas Stars

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

23:34 together · 4 games

xG share80.7%
Corsi for / against
32 / 13
Fenwick for / against
20 / 7
Corsi share
71.1%
Fenwick share
74.1%
xG for / against
1.37 / 0.33
Defense pair

50:05 together · 4 games

xG share52.1%
Corsi for / against
42 / 42
Fenwick for / against
25 / 26
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
49.0%
xG for / against
1.59 / 1.47
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

49:28 together · 5 games

xG share44.7%
Corsi for / against
48 / 49
Fenwick for / against
36 / 36
Corsi share
49.5%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
2.15 / 2.67
Defense pair

66:52 together · 5 games

xG share51.4%
Corsi for / against
66 / 73
Fenwick for / against
48 / 47
Corsi share
47.5%
Fenwick share
50.5%
xG for / against
3.34 / 3.15
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 8

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
61
Save %
96.7
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
27.9

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 9

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
82
Save %
93.9
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
31.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
2.28
xG differential / game
0.71

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.47
xG against / game
3.46
xG differential / game
0.01

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
57.2
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
55.1
Faceoff win %
57.1
Penalties / game
3.25

Shots / game: 24.8 · Shooting: 10.1% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
57.6
Corsi share (%)
47.2
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
42.9
Penalties / game
3.4

Shots / game: 30.2 · Shooting: 13.2% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
15Points11
0.625Points %0.458
33Goals for40
25Goals against40
8Goal differential0
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Dallas Stars DAL road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
5Games5
3Wins4
7Points8
7Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
7-2-1Record3-6-1
15Points7
32Goals for27
19Goals against35
13Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Dallas Stars DAL 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 2 wins
Total goals36 – 21
Goal differential +15 / -15
Goals per game3.6 / 2.1
Shots per game29.1 / 28.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 28, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 3 26 - 12 View
Dec 7, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 29 - 23 View
Apr 5, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
5 - 3 40 - 24 View
Nov 11, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
7 - 1 40 - 21 View
Mar 22, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 4 22 - 23 View
Oct 24, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 1 34 - 39 View
Mar 23, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 42 - 33 View
Dec 12, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 2 27 - 25 View
Jan 8, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 29 - 32 View
Oct 19, 2021
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 1 29 - 28 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DAL PIT