Forward trio
114:25 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 113 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 88 / 76
- Corsi share
- 53.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.7%
- xG for / against
- 6.60 / 5.08
Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 28, 2026.
March 28, 2026
· 4:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
129:29 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 102 / 130
- Fenwick for / against
- 76 / 88
- Corsi share
- 44.0%
- Fenwick share
- 46.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.34 / 5.40
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
56:13 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 39 / 62
- Fenwick for / against
- 29 / 44
- Corsi share
- 38.6%
- Fenwick share
- 39.7%
- xG for / against
- 2.08 / 2.36
Defense pair
151:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 158 / 138
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 109
- Corsi share
- 53.4%
- Fenwick share
- 51.1%
- xG for / against
- 7.74 / 7.93
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Mar 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 119
- Save %
- 90.8
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 41.2
Stuart Skinner
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Mar 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 171
- Save %
- 88.3
- Goals allowed
- 20
- Close-range shots %
- 37.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.02
- xG against / game
- 3.10
- xG differential / game
- -0.08
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 3.81
- xG differential / game
- -0.29
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 50.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 24.5 · Shooting: 11.4% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.2
- Faceoff win %
- 45.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 29.5 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DAL
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 0.625 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 33 | Goals for | 40 |
| 25 | Goals against | 40 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 0 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
DAL road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 8 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
DAL
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 15 | Points | 7 |
| 32 | Goals for | 27 |
| 19 | Goals against | 35 |
| 13 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DAL
7 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
3 wins
Total goals30 – 21
Goal differential
+9
/
-9
Goals per game3.0 / 2.1
Shots per game29.0 / 30.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 23 | View |
| Apr 5, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
5 - 3 | 40 - 24 | View |
| Nov 11, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
7 - 1 | 40 - 21 | View |
| Mar 22, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 4 | 22 - 23 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 1 | 34 - 39 | View |
| Mar 23, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 42 - 33 | View |
| Dec 12, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 27 - 25 | View |
| Jan 8, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 32 | View |
| Oct 19, 2021 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Oct 26, 2019 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 0 | 27 - 25 | View |