Away team
Dallas Stars
56.2%
Fair American
-128
Fair decimal
1.78
Dallas Stars vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2027
NHL matchup
Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2027.
March 5, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Dallas Stars at 56.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Philadelphia Flyers
43.8%
Fair American
+128
Fair decimal
2.28
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 5, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.09
- ROI
- 3.1%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.55
- ROI
- 6.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Value Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 1.36
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 0-3
- Net units
- -3.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
52:30 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 52 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 36 / 23
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 61.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair
96:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 66 / 48
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 57.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.83 / 2.68
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
49:44 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 40 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 22 / 25
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair
106:21 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 59
- Corsi share
- 51.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.34 / 3.84
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Dallas Stars
Expected starter unavailable.
Philadelphia Flyers
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 103
- Save %
- 90.3
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 34.0
Joseph Woll
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 134
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 32.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 2.56
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 2.65
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.79
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.7
- Faceoff win %
- 55.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 44.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DAL
|
Metric |
PHI
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 9 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.346 |
| 32 | Goals for | 24 |
| 20 | Goals against | 42 |
| 12 | Goal differential | -18 |
| W5 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
DAL road
|
Metric |
PHI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 2 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 7 | Goal differential | -10 |
Last 10 games
|
DAL
|
Metric |
PHI
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 15 | Points | 7 |
| 32 | Goals for | 20 |
| 16 | Goals against | 29 |
| 16 | Goal differential | -9 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DAL
8 wins
10
games reviewed
PHI
2 wins
Total goals36 – 20
Goal differential
+16
/
-16
Goals per game3.6 / 2.0
Shots per game25.6 / 31.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 |
Dallas Stars
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
1 - 2 | 18 - 30 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Dallas Stars
|
1 - 5 | 21 - 28 | View |
| Mar 22, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 24 - 19 | View |
| Jan 9, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 1 | 23 - 28 | View |
| Jan 18, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
1 - 5 | 15 - 43 | View |
| Oct 21, 2023 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Dallas Stars
|
4 - 5 | 40 - 25 | View |
| Apr 6, 2023 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Dallas Stars
|
1 - 4 | 25 - 30 | View |
| Nov 13, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
5 - 1 | 31 - 38 | View |
| Jan 24, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 1 | 36 - 28 | View |
| Nov 13, 2021 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 5 | 33 - 31 | View |