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Dallas Stars vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 29, 2026

NHL matchup

Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 29, 2026.

December 29, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

41.0%
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

59.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 59.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

59.0%
Fair American -144
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 29, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:23 together · 8 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
35 / 53
Fenwick for / against
25 / 39
Corsi share
39.8%
Fenwick share
39.1%
xG for / against
1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair

71:06 together · 9 games

xG share65.2%
Corsi for / against
84 / 68
Fenwick for / against
58 / 39
Corsi share
55.3%
Fenwick share
59.8%
xG for / against
4.13 / 2.20
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.3

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
37.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.78
xG differential / game
0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
15Points16
0.682Points %0.667
32Goals for38
20Goals against34
12Goal differential4
W5Current streakW1
Road versus home
Dallas Stars DAL road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
5Games7
3Wins5
7Points10
7Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
32Goals for31
16Goals against31
16Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Dallas Stars DAL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 5 wins
Total goals30 – 30
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.0 / 3.0
Shots per game28.5 / 25.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 30, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 6 16 - 26 View
Nov 11, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 33 - 29 View
Jan 12, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 26 - 27 View
Jan 2, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 4 13 - 25 View
Feb 22, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 4 15 - 30 View
Dec 15, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 5 29 - 24 View
Dec 8, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 4 31 - 32 View
Oct 24, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 4 31 - 32 View
Oct 29, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 1 24 - 39 View
Oct 17, 2021
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 34 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DAL OTT