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Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 15, 2027

NHL matchup

Dallas Stars at New York Islanders

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 15, 2027.

January 15, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Dallas Stars

7-4-1

37.3%
at
Home

New York Islanders

6-4-2

62.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Islanders at 62.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Home team

New York Islanders

62.7%
Fair American -168
Fair decimal 1.59
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 15, 2027.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
10
Record
6-4
Net units
-0.45
ROI
-4.5%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

46:49 together · 6 games

xG share74.1%
Corsi for / against
42 / 39
Fenwick for / against
29 / 21
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
58.0%
xG for / against
2.54 / 0.89
Defense pair

84:31 together · 10 games

xG share60.4%
Corsi for / against
83 / 61
Fenwick for / against
55 / 38
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
59.1%
xG for / against
3.20 / 2.10
All observed combinations

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

130:50 together · 10 games

xG share56.0%
Corsi for / against
135 / 93
Fenwick for / against
93 / 69
Corsi share
59.2%
Fenwick share
57.4%
xG for / against
6.37 / 5.00
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Casey DeSmith

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 27

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
80
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.0

Semyon Varlamov

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
92
Save %
89.1
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
40.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.29
xG against / game
2.64
xG differential / game
0.66

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.3
Corsi share (%)
52.0
Fenwick share (%)
53.1
Faceoff win %
56.4
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 26.8 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 30.3 ft

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.7
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
56.2
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
15Points14
0.625Points %0.583
33Goals for36
25Goals against32
8Goal differential4
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Dallas Stars DAL road
Metric
New York Islanders NYI home
5Games6
3Wins4
7Points9
7Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
7-2-1Record5-3-2
15Points12
32Goals for29
19Goals against30
13Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Dallas Stars DAL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Islanders NYI 4 wins
Total goals30 – 22
Goal differential +8 / -8
Goals per game3.0 / 2.2
Shots per game32.1 / 27.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 25, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 6 20 - 38 View
Mar 26, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 2 27 - 25 View
Nov 18, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 22 - 24 View
Feb 23, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 3 29 - 37 View
Oct 12, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
0 - 3 34 - 27 View
Feb 26, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 28 - 32 View
Jan 21, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 3 43 - 28 View
Jan 10, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 1 26 - 28 View
Nov 19, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 5 29 - 35 View
Apr 5, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 21 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DAL NYI