Away team
Dallas Stars
40.6%
Fair American
+146
Fair decimal
2.46
Dallas Stars vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 27, 2026
NHL matchup
Dallas Stars at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 27, 2026.
December 27, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 59.4%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
59.4%
Fair American
-146
Fair decimal
1.68
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 27, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.09
- ROI
- 3.1%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.55
- ROI
- 6.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
52:30 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 52 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 36 / 23
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 61.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair
96:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 66 / 48
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 57.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.83 / 2.68
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 45
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 35
- Corsi share
- 68.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.26 / 1.88
Defense pair
108:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.88 / 4.78
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Dallas Stars
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 103
- Save %
- 90.3
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 34.0
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 2.56
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.7
- Faceoff win %
- 55.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.5
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DAL
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 14 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 32 | Goals for | 36 |
| 20 | Goals against | 36 |
| 12 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W5 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
DAL road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 7 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
DAL
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 15 | Points | 12 |
| 32 | Goals for | 33 |
| 16 | Goals against | 34 |
| 16 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DAL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
4 wins
Total goals35 – 26
Goal differential
+9
/
-9
Goals per game3.5 / 2.6
Shots per game33.8 / 25.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Dallas Stars
|
4 - 3 | 29 - 27 | View |
| Nov 13, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 0 | 19 - 24 | View |
| Jan 16, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 1 | 24 - 33 | View |
| Jan 11, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 1 | 36 - 31 | View |
| Feb 10, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 2 | 38 - 20 | View |
| Jan 2, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Dallas Stars
|
4 - 3 | 18 - 33 | View |
| Dec 23, 2022 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 4 | 24 - 36 | View |
| Oct 22, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 2 | 30 - 34 | View |
| Mar 17, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 3 | 35 - 31 | View |
| Jan 18, 2022 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Dallas Stars
|
5 - 3 | 22 - 51 | View |