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Colorado Avalanche vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 16, 2027

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 16, 2027.

January 16, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

49.3%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

50.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 50.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

49.3%
Fair American +103
Fair decimal 2.03
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

50.7%
Fair American -103
Fair decimal 1.97
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 16, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:07 together · 9 games

xG share57.4%
Corsi for / against
134 / 93
Fenwick for / against
95 / 73
Corsi share
59.0%
Fenwick share
56.5%
xG for / against
6.11 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Scott Wedgewood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 25

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
126
Save %
88.9
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
27.0

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
2.88
xG differential / game
0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.7
Corsi share (%)
51.5
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
46.2
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
13Points12
0.542Points %0.600
49Goals for34
40Goals against32
9Goal differential2
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
6Games7
2Wins5
4Points10
-2Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
4-5-1Record6-4-0
9Points12
35Goals for34
35Goals against32
0Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 3 wins
Total goals36 – 26
Goal differential +10 / -10
Goals per game3.6 / 2.6
Shots per game29.0 / 28.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 22, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 24 - 22 View
Jan 19, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 5 24 - 44 View
Nov 21, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 1 27 - 29 View
Nov 15, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 2 20 - 19 View
Feb 13, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
6 - 3 37 - 27 View
Jan 24, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 6 25 - 31 View
Jan 24, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 39 - 26 View
Nov 19, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 0 29 - 32 View
Apr 18, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 27 - 26 View
Oct 19, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 6 27 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL WSH