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Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 10, 2026.

November 10, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

46.1%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

53.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 53.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

46.1%
Fair American +117
Fair decimal 2.17
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

53.9%
Fair American -117
Fair decimal 1.86
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 10, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:07 together · 9 games

xG share57.4%
Corsi for / against
134 / 93
Fenwick for / against
95 / 73
Corsi share
59.0%
Fenwick share
56.5%
xG for / against
6.11 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Scott Wedgewood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 25

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
126
Save %
88.9
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
27.0

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
2.88
xG differential / game
0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.7
Corsi share (%)
51.5
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
46.4
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
13Points16
0.542Points %0.615
49Goals for50
40Goals against41
9Goal differential9
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
6Games8
2Wins4
4Points9
-2Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-5-1Record6-2-2
9Points14
35Goals for44
35Goals against34
0Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
Total goals35 – 35
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.5 / 3.5
Shots per game34.5 / 27.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 10, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
6 - 3 23 - 33 View
Jan 25, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 37 - 33 View
Jan 12, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 31 - 34 View
Mar 19, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 39 - 26 View
Mar 8, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 7 21 - 34 View
Feb 24, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 30 - 29 View
Jan 13, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 3 33 - 29 View
Mar 15, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 29 - 18 View
Dec 31, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
6 - 2 32 - 28 View
Jan 8, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 5 27 - 49 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL TOR