Away team
Colorado Avalanche
47.0%
Fair American
+113
Fair decimal
2.13
Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 12, 2027
NHL matchup
Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 12, 2027.
January 12, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 53.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
53.0%
Fair American
-113
Fair decimal
1.89
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 12, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 7-5
- Net units
- -0.77
- ROI
- -6.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.68
- ROI
- 22.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 7-5
- Net units
- -0.77
- ROI
- -6.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Colorado Avalanche
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsPittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Colorado Avalanche
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Scott Wedgewood
Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 25
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 126
- Save %
- 88.9
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 27.0
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Colorado Avalanche
- xG for / game
- 3.07
- xG against / game
- 2.99
- xG differential / game
- 0.08
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Colorado Avalanche
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 51.4
- Faceoff win %
- 46.2
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
COL
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 0.577 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 54 | Goals for | 40 |
| 42 | Goals against | 40 |
| 12 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
COL road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 4 | Points | 8 |
| -2 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
COL
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-4-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 11 | Points | 7 |
| 38 | Goals for | 27 |
| 34 | Goals against | 35 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
COL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
4 wins
Total goals37 – 33
Goal differential
+4
/
-4
Goals per game3.7 / 3.3
Shots per game30.6 / 33.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
2 - 5 | 31 - 32 | View |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 2 | 30 - 32 | View |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
7 - 2 | 20 - 27 | View |
| Mar 4, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
1 - 4 | 33 - 25 | View |
| Dec 10, 2024 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 2 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Mar 24, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 30 | View |
| Oct 26, 2023 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 4 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Mar 22, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
5 - 2 | 45 - 30 | View |
| Feb 7, 2023 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 42 - 38 | View |
| Apr 5, 2022 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 4 | 32 - 45 | View |