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Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 7:30 PM CST
Away

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

3 Model pick
Final
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

2
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 53.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

53.2%
Fair American -114
Fair decimal 1.88
Best market -113 · BetRivers
Market implied 53.1%
Edge +0.1%
Expected value +0.3%
Calculate value
Dallas Stars logo
Home team

Dallas Stars

46.8%
Fair American +114
Fair decimal 2.14
Best market +100 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 50.0%
Edge -3.2%
Expected value -6.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.45
ROI
-22.5%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
5
Record
2-3
Net units
-1.61
ROI
-32.2%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

60:04 together · 5 games

xG share65.1%
Corsi for / against
67 / 51
Fenwick for / against
51 / 35
Corsi share
56.8%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
2.98 / 1.60
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

32:42 together · 5 games

xG share75.9%
Corsi for / against
32 / 29
Fenwick for / against
24 / 14
Corsi share
52.5%
Fenwick share
63.2%
xG for / against
1.72 / 0.55
Defense pair

56:27 together · 5 games

xG share52.3%
Corsi for / against
49 / 53
Fenwick for / against
30 / 31
Corsi share
48.0%
Fenwick share
49.2%
xG for / against
2.00 / 1.82
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Colorado Avalanche

Mackenzie Blackwood 67.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Mackenzie Blackwood?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.121
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.437
Prev save pct
-0.385
Team win pct before
-0.277
Started last game
-0.270
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger 74.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jake Oettinger?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.056
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.392
Days since last start
+0.345
Started last game
-0.274
Prev save pct
+0.265
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
98
Save %
86.7
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
30.6

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
82
Save %
96.3
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
26.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.58
xG against / game
2.27
xG differential / game
1.31

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
2.47
xG differential / game
0.43

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
64.8
Corsi share (%)
54.5
Fenwick share (%)
54.6
Faceoff win %
51.4
Penalties / game
3.4

Shots / game: 32.4 · Shooting: 16.0% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft

Dallas Stars

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
56.6
Corsi share (%)
51.5
Fenwick share (%)
53.2
Faceoff win %
54.6
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 24.8 · Shooting: 8.9% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
13Points15
0.542Points %0.682
49Goals for32
40Goals against20
9Goal differential12
L1Current streakW5
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
6Games6
2Wins4
4Points8
-2Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
4-5-1Record7-2-1
9Points15
35Goals for32
35Goals against16
0Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 4 wins
Total goals39 – 34
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.9 / 3.4
Shots per game32.6 / 25.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 4, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 0 22 - 17 View
Mar 18, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 1 18 - 34 View
Mar 6, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
5 - 4 29 - 21 View
Oct 11, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 4 22 - 39 View
Mar 16, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 4 22 - 35 View
Jan 18, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 6 29 - 36 View
Nov 29, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 5 32 - 24 View
Apr 7, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
7 - 4 37 - 38 View
Feb 27, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 5 34 - 27 View
Jan 4, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
5 - 4 34 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL DAL