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Chicago Blackhawks vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Chicago Blackhawks at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 4, 2027.

January 4, 2027 · 7:30 PM MBT
Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4-13-1

33.6%
at
Home

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-3

66.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 66.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Chicago Blackhawks logo
Away team

Chicago Blackhawks

33.6%
Fair American +198
Fair decimal 2.98
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

66.4%
Fair American -198
Fair decimal 1.51
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 4, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

110:39 together · 10 games

xG share29.7%
Corsi for / against
86 / 116
Fenwick for / against
61 / 93
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
39.6%
xG for / against
3.37 / 7.95
All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

127:27 together · 10 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
103 / 135
Fenwick for / against
80 / 100
Corsi share
43.3%
Fenwick share
44.4%
xG for / against
5.61 / 6.79
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 4, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
86.0
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
39.5

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
184
Save %
93.5
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
34.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.58
xG against / game
3.73
xG differential / game
-1.15

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.38
xG against / game
3.48
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.6
Corsi share (%)
47.5
Fenwick share (%)
45.1
Faceoff win %
40.2
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 23.9 · Shooting: 7.5% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.0
Corsi share (%)
47.8
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 4, 2027.

Chicago Blackhawks

F. Nazar Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.00 points/game
0.53 points/game across 130 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
1.4
S. Rinzel Hot · +0.38 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.67 points/game
0.29 points/game across 77 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
O. Moore Cold · -0.35 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 74 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.0
R. Donato Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.20 points/game
0.55 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.6
R. Greene Cold · -0.34 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 97 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8

Montréal Canadiens

Z. Bolduc Hot · +0.78 P/GP

5 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 1.20 points/game
0.42 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
1.6
J. Slafkovský Cold · -0.58 P/GP

5 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.20 points/game
0.78 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.8
M. Matheson Hot · +0.58 P/GP

4 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 1.00 points/game
0.42 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
2.8
K. Guhle Hot · +0.44 P/GP

4 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.75 points/game
0.31 points/game across 103 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.8
O. Kapanen Cold · -0.39 P/GP

4 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.00 points/game
0.39 points/game across 106 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
9Points25
0.250Points %0.735
39Goals for61
76Goals against53
-37Goal differential8
L4Current streakW2
Road versus home
Chicago Blackhawks CHI road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
9Games9
0Wins5
1Points12
-29Goal differential-2
Last 10 games
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
1-8-1Record8-0-2
3Points18
18Goals for38
44Goals against26
-26Goal differential12
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Chicago Blackhawks CHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 7 wins
Total goals21 – 33
Goal differential -12 / +12
Goals per game2.1 / 3.3
Shots per game24.5 / 29.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 23, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 1 28 - 21 View
Dec 18, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 4 15 - 35 View
Oct 11, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 2 28 - 22 View
Apr 14, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 3 25 - 21 View
Jan 3, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 4 40 - 26 View
Dec 22, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 2 28 - 21 View
Oct 14, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 30 - 36 View
Feb 14, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
0 - 4 22 - 31 View
Nov 25, 2022
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 2 23 - 32 View
Jan 13, 2022
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 3 29 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CHI MTL