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Carolina Hurricanes vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 11, 2026

NHL matchup

Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 11, 2026.

October 11, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Carolina Hurricanes

10-2-2

4 Model pick
Final
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-4

1
Model V2 pick: Carolina Hurricanes at 61.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Carolina Hurricanes logo
Away team

Carolina Hurricanes

61.7%
Fair American -161
Fair decimal 1.62
Best market -200 · BetRivers
Market implied 66.7%
Edge -5.0%
Expected value -7.5%
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

38.3%
Fair American +161
Fair decimal 2.61
Best market +186 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 35.0%
Edge +3.3%
Expected value +9.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 11, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Carolina Hurricanes

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

51:04 together · 6 games

xG share63.6%
Corsi for / against
64 / 36
Fenwick for / against
43 / 28
Corsi share
64.0%
Fenwick share
60.6%
xG for / against
3.58 / 2.05
Defense pair

85:02 together · 6 games

xG share49.5%
Corsi for / against
85 / 67
Fenwick for / against
57 / 52
Corsi share
55.9%
Fenwick share
52.3%
xG for / against
3.70 / 3.78
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

41:29 together · 3 games

xG share26.3%
Corsi for / against
35 / 66
Fenwick for / against
28 / 54
Corsi share
34.7%
Fenwick share
34.1%
xG for / against
1.29 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Carolina Hurricanes

Pyotr Kochetkov 94.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Pyotr Kochetkov?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.737
Started last game
+0.537
Goalie win pct before
+0.341
Won previous appearance
+0.259
Days since last start
+0.246
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 11, 1:38 PM Winnipeg time

Philadelphia Flyers

Joseph Woll 95.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joseph Woll?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+0.934
Team win pct before
+0.559
Started last game
+0.445
Days since last start
+0.335
Goalie team start share
+0.311
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 11, 1:38 PM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Brandon Bussi

Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
93
Save %
87.1
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
35.5

Dan Vladar

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 10

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
105
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
33.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Carolina Hurricanes

xG for / game
4.14
xG against / game
2.52
xG differential / game
1.62

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.23
xG against / game
4.10
xG differential / game
-1.87

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Carolina Hurricanes

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
65.2
Corsi share (%)
59.7
Fenwick share (%)
60.5
Faceoff win %
51.6
Penalties / game
5.17

Shots / game: 32.2 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
44.8
Corsi share (%)
39.0
Fenwick share (%)
37.8
Faceoff win %
51.4
Penalties / game
4.33

Shots / game: 20.2 · Shooting: 5.8% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
22Points10
0.786Points %0.357
53Goals for27
34Goals against46
19Goal differential-19
W2Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Carolina Hurricanes CAR road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
9Games8
7Wins2
15Points7
15Goal differential-11
Last 10 games
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
8-1-1Record3-5-2
17Points8
42Goals for22
22Goals against29
20Goal differential-7
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Carolina Hurricanes CAR 9 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 1 wins
Total goals38 – 21
Goal differential +17 / -17
Goals per game3.8 / 2.1
Shots per game32.9 / 23.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 3, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2 40 - 18 View
Apr 13, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 26 - 23 View
Dec 14, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 3 26 - 32 View
Dec 13, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 3 21 - 18 View
Oct 11, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
3 - 4 23 - 39 View
Mar 15, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 0 30 - 26 View
Nov 20, 2024
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 1 37 - 19 View
Nov 5, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 6 16 - 35 View
Mar 21, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 3 32 - 33 View
Nov 28, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 1 36 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CAR PHI