Away team
Buffalo Sabres
47.8%
Fair American
+109
Fair decimal
2.09
Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 19, 2026
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 19, 2026.
November 19, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Washington Capitals at 52.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Washington Capitals
52.2%
Fair American
-109
Fair decimal
1.92
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 19, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 2.30
- ROI
- 28.7%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 46
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 34
- Corsi share
- 67.1%
- Fenwick share
- 64.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair
82:50 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 49
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.17 / 3.45
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
51:45 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 55 / 44
- Fenwick for / against
- 43 / 30
- Corsi share
- 55.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.53 / 1.82
Defense pair
85:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 77 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 60 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.3%
- Fenwick share
- 42.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.07 / 4.43
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Logan Thompson
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 31.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 3.20
- xG differential / game
- 0.33
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 14 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 33 | Goals for | 39 |
| 41 | Goals against | 34 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 5 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
WSH home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 8 |
| 2 | Wins | 6 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| -3 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 11 | Points | 12 |
| 26 | Goals for | 34 |
| 32 | Goals against | 32 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
5 wins
10
games reviewed
WSH
5 wins
Total goals37 – 35
Goal differential
+2
/
-2
Goals per game3.7 / 3.5
Shots per game26.4 / 28.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 34 | View |
| Apr 4, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 6 | 39 - 28 | View |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 1 | 22 - 30 | View |
| Nov 1, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 4 | 34 - 24 | View |
| Mar 30, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Washington Capitals
|
8 - 5 | 23 - 29 | View |
| Jan 6, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 27 | View |
| Dec 14, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 4 | 21 - 31 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 4 | 24 - 17 | View |
| Apr 2, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 6 | 26 - 35 | View |
| Nov 22, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 4 | 27 - 30 | View |