Skip to content

Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 15, 2026

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 15, 2026.

October 15, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Buffalo Sabres

4-4-3

5
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 58.6% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Buffalo Sabres logo
Away team

Buffalo Sabres

41.4%
Fair American +142
Fair decimal 2.42
Best market +102 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 49.5%
Edge -8.1%
Expected value -16.4%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

58.6%
Fair American -142
Fair decimal 1.71
Best market -115 · BetUS
Market implied 53.5%
Edge +5.1%
Expected value +9.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 15, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
0.34
ROI
6.8%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.6%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.38
ROI
12.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

69:39 together · 7 games

xG share72.1%
Corsi for / against
78 / 33
Fenwick for / against
54 / 23
Corsi share
70.3%
Fenwick share
70.1%
xG for / against
4.21 / 1.62
Defense pair

66:09 together · 6 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
61 / 49
Fenwick for / against
45 / 38
Corsi share
55.5%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.69 / 2.65
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

69:44 together · 7 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
81 / 76
Fenwick for / against
61 / 59
Corsi share
51.6%
Fenwick share
50.8%
xG for / against
3.33 / 3.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Buffalo Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 52.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.344
Prev save pct
+0.334
Started last game
-0.317
Won previous appearance
-0.244
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.175
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Toronto Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky 82.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Bobrovsky?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.495
Started last game
+0.343
Won previous appearance
+0.339
Days since last start
+0.297
Goalie win pct before
-0.248
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
107
Save %
85.0
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
34.6

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 13

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
80
Save %
87.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
36.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.17
xG against / game
3.10
xG differential / game
0.07

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.00
xG against / game
3.75
xG differential / game
-0.75

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
57.1
Corsi share (%)
52.7
Fenwick share (%)
51.6
Faceoff win %
47.8
Penalties / game
3.71

Shots / game: 25.7 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.5 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
46.3
Fenwick share (%)
46.7
Faceoff win %
51.9
Penalties / game
4.14

Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
11Points16
0.500Points %0.615
31Goals for50
41Goals against41
-10Goal differential9
OT1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
5Games8
1Wins4
5Points9
-5Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-3-3Record6-2-2
11Points14
28Goals for44
35Goals against34
-7Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
Total goals34 – 36
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.4 / 3.6
Shots per game30.2 / 27.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 14, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 18 - 33 View
Jan 27, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
7 - 4 31 - 23 View
Oct 25, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 26 - 23 View
Oct 24, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 5 34 - 30 View
Apr 15, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 0 32 - 35 View
Dec 20, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
6 - 3 29 - 27 View
Dec 15, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 5 27 - 41 View
Mar 30, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 0 22 - 34 View
Mar 6, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 25 - 27 View
Dec 21, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 9 27 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BUF TOR