Away team
Buffalo Sabres
53.8%
Fair American
-116
Fair decimal
1.86
Buffalo Sabres vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2027
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 28, 2027.
March 28, 2027
· 7:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Buffalo Sabres at 53.8%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
St. Louis Blues
46.2%
Fair American
+116
Fair decimal
2.16
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 28, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.62
- ROI
- -15.6%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 1.60
- ROI
- 53.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 1.70
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 2-3
- Net units
- -1.49
- ROI
- -29.7%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
103:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 117 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 41
- Corsi share
- 68.4%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.30 / 2.72
Defense pair
81:19 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 72 / 59
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 42
- Corsi share
- 55.0%
- Fenwick share
- 54.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.23 / 2.92
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
108:27 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 98 / 106
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 81
- Corsi share
- 48.0%
- Fenwick share
- 46.7%
- xG for / against
- 4.57 / 5.02
Defense pair
113:14 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 86
- Corsi share
- 50.5%
- Fenwick share
- 46.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.79 / 5.98
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
St. Louis Blues
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 89.0
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 40.5
Joel Hofer
St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 157
- Save %
- 91.1
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 34.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.20
- xG against / game
- 3.55
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
St. Louis Blues
- xG for / game
- 2.90
- xG against / game
- 2.82
- xG differential / game
- 0.08
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.9
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 11 |
| 0.500 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 31 | Goals for | 35 |
| 41 | Goals against | 35 |
| -10 | Goal differential | 0 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
STL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 2 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 11 | Points | 9 |
| 28 | Goals for | 31 |
| 35 | Goals against | 35 |
| -7 | Goal differential | -4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
5 wins
10
games reviewed
STL
5 wins
Total goals33 – 35
Goal differential
-2
/
+2
Goals per game3.3 / 3.5
Shots per game32.9 / 26.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 2 | 34 - 18 | View |
| Nov 6, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 0 | 17 - 28 | View |
| Dec 29, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 2 | 16 - 37 | View |
| Nov 14, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 4 | 27 - 33 | View |
| Feb 10, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 1 | 26 - 34 | View |
| Nov 30, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 6 | 46 - 20 | View |
| Jan 24, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
St. Louis Blues
|
5 - 3 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Nov 23, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 6 | 36 - 32 | View |
| Apr 14, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
6 - 2 | 28 - 37 | View |
| Feb 25, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
St. Louis Blues
|
3 - 5 | 38 - 23 | View |