Skip to content

Buffalo Sabres vs San Jose Sharks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 27, 2026

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 27, 2026.

October 27, 2026 · 9:30 PM CST
Away

Buffalo Sabres

4-4-3

47.4%
at
Home

San Jose Sharks

6-5-1

52.6% Model pick
Model V2 pick: San Jose Sharks at 52.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Buffalo Sabres logo
Away team

Buffalo Sabres

47.4%
Fair American +111
Fair decimal 2.11
Best market -134 · FanDuel
Market implied 57.3%
Edge -9.9%
Expected value -17.2%
Calculate value
San Jose Sharks logo
Home team

San Jose Sharks

52.6%
Fair American -111
Fair decimal 1.9
Best market +114 · FanDuel
Market implied 46.7%
Edge +5.9%
Expected value +12.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 27, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-1.66
ROI
-23.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.62
ROI
-15.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

103:15 together · 10 games

xG share69.8%
Corsi for / against
117 / 54
Fenwick for / against
81 / 41
Corsi share
68.4%
Fenwick share
66.4%
xG for / against
6.30 / 2.72
Defense pair

81:19 together · 7 games

xG share52.5%
Corsi for / against
72 / 59
Fenwick for / against
50 / 42
Corsi share
55.0%
Fenwick share
54.3%
xG for / against
3.23 / 2.92
All observed combinations

San Jose Sharks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

136:17 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
116 / 148
Fenwick for / against
82 / 103
Corsi share
43.9%
Fenwick share
44.3%
xG for / against
4.90 / 5.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Buffalo Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 52.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.512
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.480
Goalie win pct before
-0.272
Days since last start
+0.247
Started last game
-0.246
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

San Jose Sharks

Yaroslav Askarov 73.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Yaroslav Askarov?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.584
Prev save pct
+0.464
Won previous appearance
+0.306
Started last game
+0.291
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
-0.222
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
163
Save %
89.0
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
40.5

Alex Nedeljkovic

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
155
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.55
xG differential / game
-0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
2.97
xG against / game
3.98
xG differential / game
-1.01

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
51.0
Fenwick share (%)
49.5
Faceoff win %
48.2
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft

San Jose Sharks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.5
Corsi share (%)
45.7
Fenwick share (%)
45.1
Faceoff win %
47.0
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 9.6% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
San Jose Sharks SJS
11Points13
0.500Points %0.542
31Goals for37
41Goals against43
-10Goal differential-6
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
San Jose Sharks SJS home
5Games4
1Wins2
5Points4
-5Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
San Jose Sharks SJS
4-3-3Record4-5-1
11Points9
28Goals for28
35Goals against36
-7Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 7 wins
10 games reviewed
San Jose Sharks SJS 3 wins
Total goals40 – 26
Goal differential +14 / -14
Goals per game4.0 / 2.6
Shots per game30.2 / 27.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 19, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
5 - 0 16 - 23 View
Mar 10, 2026
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 6 20 - 26 View
Mar 4, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
6 - 2 28 - 22 View
Nov 23, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 2 31 - 33 View
Jan 27, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
5 - 2 36 - 26 View
Jan 15, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
0 - 3 28 - 35 View
Feb 18, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 2 31 - 35 View
Dec 4, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 6 29 - 38 View
Jan 6, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 2 21 - 39 View
Nov 2, 2021
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 5 28 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BUF SJS