Away team
Buffalo Sabres
47.8%
Fair American
+109
Fair decimal
2.09
Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 22, 2026
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 22, 2026.
December 22, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 52.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
52.2%
Fair American
-109
Fair decimal
1.92
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 22, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 46
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 34
- Corsi share
- 67.1%
- Fenwick share
- 64.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair
82:50 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 49
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.17 / 3.45
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 11 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 33 | Goals for | 40 |
| 41 | Goals against | 40 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 8 |
| -3 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 11 | Points | 7 |
| 26 | Goals for | 27 |
| 32 | Goals against | 35 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
4 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
6 wins
Total goals30 – 34
Goal differential
-4
/
+4
Goals per game3.0 / 3.4
Shots per game32.9 / 31.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 1 | 26 - 28 | View |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 32 - 28 | View |
| Nov 26, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 4 | 31 - 19 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 7 | 25 - 30 | View |
| Jan 17, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 42 | View |
| Oct 16, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 6 | 33 - 43 | View |
| Jan 6, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 1 | 32 - 41 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 3 | 33 - 34 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 4 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 10, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 3 | 38 - 31 | View |