Away team
Buffalo Sabres
48.3%
Fair American
+107
Fair decimal
2.07
Buffalo Sabres vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 21, 2027
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 21, 2027.
March 21, 2027
· 2:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
New York Islanders at 51.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
New York Islanders
51.7%
Fair American
-107
Fair decimal
1.93
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 21, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsNew York Islanders
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Semyon Varlamov
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 92
- Save %
- 89.1
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 40.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.99
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.39
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.3
- Faceoff win %
- 56.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 14 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.583 |
| 33 | Goals for | 36 |
| 41 | Goals against | 32 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
NYI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 9 |
| -3 | Goal differential | 8 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 11 | Points | 12 |
| 26 | Goals for | 29 |
| 32 | Goals against | 30 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
7 wins
10
games reviewed
NYI
3 wins
Total goals33 – 17
Goal differential
+16
/
-16
Goals per game3.3 / 1.7
Shots per game31.7 / 27.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 33 | View |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
New York Islanders
|
5 - 0 | 21 - 26 | View |
| Dec 20, 2025 |
New York Islanders
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 3 | 34 - 32 | View |
| Dec 23, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
New York Islanders
|
7 - 1 | 25 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
New York Islanders
|
0 - 3 | 29 - 20 | View |
| Nov 1, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 3 | 36 - 35 | View |
| Mar 14, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
0 - 4 | 21 - 37 | View |
| Oct 21, 2023 |
New York Islanders
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
1 - 3 | 25 - 42 | View |
| Oct 14, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 29 | View |
| Mar 25, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 0 | 35 - 26 | View |