Away team
Buffalo Sabres
48.2%
Fair American
+107
Fair decimal
2.07
Buffalo Sabres vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 12, 2027
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 12, 2027.
March 12, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Detroit Red Wings at 51.8%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Detroit Red Wings
51.8%
Fair American
-107
Fair decimal
1.93
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 12, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.53
- ROI
- -42.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -0.98
- ROI
- -14.1%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -1.97
- ROI
- -21.8%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 46
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 34
- Corsi share
- 67.1%
- Fenwick share
- 64.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair
82:50 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 49
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.17 / 3.45
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
74:28 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 89 / 63
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 46
- Corsi share
- 58.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.23 / 3.44
Defense pair
112:48 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 115 / 99
- Fenwick for / against
- 80 / 60
- Corsi share
- 53.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.84 / 3.62
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Detroit Red Wings
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Michal Postava
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 35
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 28.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 3.35
- xG against / game
- 3.16
- xG differential / game
- 0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
DET
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 13 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 33 | Goals for | 33 |
| 41 | Goals against | 37 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -4 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
DET home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| -3 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
DET
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 5-2-3 |
| 11 | Points | 13 |
| 26 | Goals for | 31 |
| 32 | Goals against | 32 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
4 wins
10
games reviewed
DET
6 wins
Total goals34 – 39
Goal differential
-5
/
+5
Goals per game3.4 / 3.9
Shots per game30.9 / 26.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 20 - 30 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
5 - 4 | 27 - 28 | View |
| Oct 22, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 4 | 31 - 31 | View |
| Mar 12, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
3 - 7 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Dec 9, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
6 - 5 | 31 - 21 | View |
| Nov 2, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Oct 26, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 5 | 25 - 39 | View |
| Apr 7, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 3 | 38 - 24 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 4 | 26 - 26 | View |
| Mar 12, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 7 | 24 - 39 | View |