Away team
Buffalo Sabres
47.9%
Fair American
+109
Fair decimal
2.09
Buffalo Sabres vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 21, 2027
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 21, 2027.
February 21, 2027
· 2:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Detroit Red Wings at 52.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Detroit Red Wings
52.1%
Fair American
-109
Fair decimal
1.92
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 21, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.53
- ROI
- -42.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -0.98
- ROI
- -14.1%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -1.97
- ROI
- -21.8%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsDetroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
74:28 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 89 / 63
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 46
- Corsi share
- 58.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.23 / 3.44
Defense pair
112:48 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 115 / 99
- Fenwick for / against
- 80 / 60
- Corsi share
- 53.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.84 / 3.62
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Detroit Red Wings
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 89.0
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 40.5
Michal Postava
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 36
- Save %
- 88.9
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 27.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.10
- xG against / game
- 3.67
- xG differential / game
- -0.57
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 3.35
- xG against / game
- 3.16
- xG differential / game
- 0.20
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.9
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
DET
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 13 |
| 0.500 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 31 | Goals for | 33 |
| 41 | Goals against | 37 |
| -10 | Goal differential | -4 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
DET home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
DET
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 5-2-3 |
| 11 | Points | 13 |
| 28 | Goals for | 31 |
| 35 | Goals against | 32 |
| -7 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
4 wins
10
games reviewed
DET
6 wins
Total goals34 – 39
Goal differential
-5
/
+5
Goals per game3.4 / 3.9
Shots per game30.9 / 26.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 20 - 30 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
5 - 4 | 27 - 28 | View |
| Oct 22, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 4 | 31 - 31 | View |
| Mar 12, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
3 - 7 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Dec 9, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
6 - 5 | 31 - 21 | View |
| Nov 2, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Oct 26, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 5 | 25 - 39 | View |
| Apr 7, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 3 | 38 - 24 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 4 | 26 - 26 | View |
| Mar 12, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 7 | 24 - 39 | View |