Away team
Boston Bruins
46.7%
Fair American
+114
Fair decimal
2.14
Boston Bruins vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 5, 2026.
November 5, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 53.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
53.3%
Fair American
-114
Fair decimal
1.88
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 5, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 3.03
- ROI
- 37.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 4-3
- Net units
- 0.79
- ROI
- 11.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 6-0
- Net units
- 4.68
- ROI
- 78.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Boston Bruins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
69:27 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 65 / 78
- Fenwick for / against
- 47 / 45
- Corsi share
- 45.5%
- Fenwick share
- 51.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.99 / 3.07
Defense pair
113:24 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 122
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 81
- Corsi share
- 44.0%
- Fenwick share
- 46.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.44 / 5.77
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Boston Bruins
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jeremy Swayman
Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 131
- Save %
- 90.8
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 32.8
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Boston Bruins
- xG for / game
- 3.30
- xG against / game
- 3.04
- xG differential / game
- 0.26
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Boston Bruins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.3
- Faceoff win %
- 54.0
- Penalties / game
- 5.0
Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 15.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BOS
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Points | 11 |
| 0.792 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 48 | Goals for | 40 |
| 26 | Goals against | 40 |
| 22 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
BOS road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 4 | Wins | 4 |
| 9 | Points | 8 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
BOS
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 15 | Points | 7 |
| 41 | Goals for | 27 |
| 23 | Goals against | 35 |
| 18 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BOS
7 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
3 wins
Total goals35 – 25
Goal differential
+10
/
-10
Goals per game3.5 / 2.5
Shots per game28.1 / 32.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 |
Boston Bruins
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 5 | 28 - 39 | View |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Boston Bruins
|
1 - 2 | 35 - 28 | View |
| Jan 11, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Boston Bruins
|
0 - 1 | 27 - 18 | View |
| Apr 13, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 1 | 32 - 24 | View |
| Mar 1, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 2 | 26 - 33 | View |
| Nov 29, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Boston Bruins
|
2 - 1 | 36 - 31 | View |
| Apr 13, 2024 |
Boston Bruins
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 4 | 31 - 32 | View |
| Mar 9, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Boston Bruins
|
1 - 5 | 39 - 23 | View |
| Jan 4, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Boston Bruins
|
6 - 5 | 35 - 29 | View |
| Apr 1, 2023 |
Boston Bruins
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 3 | 35 - 24 | View |