Away team
Boston Bruins
45.5%
Fair American
+120
Fair decimal
2.2
Boston Bruins vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 4, 2027
NHL matchup
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 4, 2027.
March 4, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Ottawa Senators at 54.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Ottawa Senators
54.5%
Fair American
-120
Fair decimal
1.83
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 4, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 3.03
- ROI
- 37.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- -0.21
- ROI
- -2.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 6-0
- Net units
- 4.68
- ROI
- 78.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 1.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.17
- ROI
- -8.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 0.63
- ROI
- 7.8%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Boston Bruins
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsOttawa Senators
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Boston Bruins
Expected starter unavailable.
Ottawa Senators
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jeremy Swayman
Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 116
- Save %
- 90.5
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 34.5
Jonas Johansson
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27
1 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 29
- Save %
- 86.2
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 37.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Boston Bruins
- xG for / game
- 3.36
- xG against / game
- 3.12
- xG differential / game
- 0.24
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 2.87
- xG against / game
- 2.67
- xG differential / game
- 0.20
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Boston Bruins
9 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.1
- Faceoff win %
- 54.6
- Penalties / game
- 5.22
Shots / game: 26.1 · Shooting: 17.0% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft
Ottawa Senators
9 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.44
Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BOS
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Points | 16 |
| 0.731 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 49 | Goals for | 39 |
| 28 | Goals against | 38 |
| 21 | Goal differential | 1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
BOS road
|
Metric |
OTT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 7 |
| 4 | Wins | 5 |
| 9 | Points | 10 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
BOS
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 15 | Points | 12 |
| 41 | Goals for | 29 |
| 21 | Goals against | 30 |
| 20 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BOS
2 wins
10
games reviewed
OTT
8 wins
Total goals24 – 42
Goal differential
-18
/
+18
Goals per game2.4 / 4.2
Shots per game24.3 / 27.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
|
4 - 1 | 24 - 19 | View |
| Dec 21, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
|
6 - 2 | 28 - 20 | View |
| Nov 13, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 5 | 21 - 22 | View |
| Nov 6, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
|
2 - 3 | 22 - 25 | View |
| Oct 27, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 7 | 28 - 23 | View |
| Mar 13, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 6 | 25 - 32 | View |
| Jan 23, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
|
0 - 2 | 29 - 26 | View |
| Jan 18, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 6 | 28 - 44 | View |
| Nov 9, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
|
3 - 2 | 34 - 16 | View |
| Apr 16, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
|
3 - 1 | 20 - 35 | View |