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Boston Bruins vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 28, 2027

NHL matchup

Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 28, 2027.

January 28, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Boston Bruins

9-3-1

49.5%
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

50.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 50.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

50.5%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 28, 2027.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
8
Record
6-2
Net units
3.03
ROI
37.9%

Value Picks

Bets
8
Record
4-4
Net units
-0.21
ROI
-2.6%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
6-0
Net units
4.68
ROI
78.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:25 together · 10 games

xG share47.5%
Corsi for / against
100 / 131
Fenwick for / against
72 / 89
Corsi share
43.3%
Fenwick share
44.7%
xG for / against
5.76 / 6.36
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 43
Fenwick for / against
21 / 39
Corsi share
44.2%
Fenwick share
35.0%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
146
Save %
91.1
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
34.9

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
3.22
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
0.02

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.73
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.0
Corsi share (%)
45.5
Fenwick share (%)
46.7
Faceoff win %
54.4
Penalties / game
5.2

Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 16.4% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
19Points16
0.731Points %0.615
49Goals for39
28Goals against38
21Goal differential1
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Boston Bruins BOS road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
7Games7
4Wins5
9Points10
4Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
41Goals for29
21Goals against30
20Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Boston Bruins BOS 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 8 wins
Total goals24 – 42
Goal differential -18 / +18
Goals per game2.4 / 4.2
Shots per game24.3 / 27.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 5, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 1 24 - 19 View
Dec 21, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
6 - 2 28 - 20 View
Nov 13, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 21 - 22 View
Nov 6, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 3 22 - 25 View
Oct 27, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 7 28 - 23 View
Mar 13, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 6 25 - 32 View
Jan 23, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
0 - 2 29 - 26 View
Jan 18, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 6 28 - 44 View
Nov 9, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 34 - 16 View
Apr 16, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 1 20 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BOS OTT