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Boston Bruins vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 20, 2026

NHL matchup

Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 20, 2026.

October 20, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Boston Bruins

9-3-1

2 Model pick
Final
Home

Dallas Stars

7-4-1

3
Model V2 pick: Boston Bruins at 50.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Boston Bruins logo
Away team

Boston Bruins

50.3%
Fair American -101
Fair decimal 1.99
Best market +145 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 40.8%
Edge +9.5%
Expected value +23.2%
Calculate value
Dallas Stars logo
Home team

Dallas Stars

49.7%
Fair American +101
Fair decimal 2.01
Best market -159 · BetRivers
Market implied 61.4%
Edge -11.7%
Expected value -19.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 20, 2026.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
2.79
ROI
55.8%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
1.79
ROI
29.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
4-0
Net units
3.44
ROI
86.1%
Full team betting results

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.45
ROI
-22.5%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Net units
-1.14
ROI
-18.9%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Boston Bruins

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

54:12 together · 7 games

xG share53.5%
Corsi for / against
57 / 56
Fenwick for / against
37 / 38
Corsi share
50.4%
Fenwick share
49.3%
xG for / against
3.04 / 2.64
Defense pair

93:35 together · 6 games

xG share59.2%
Corsi for / against
88 / 75
Fenwick for / against
65 / 59
Corsi share
54.0%
Fenwick share
52.4%
xG for / against
4.52 / 3.11
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

38:23 together · 6 games

xG share74.9%
Corsi for / against
36 / 31
Fenwick for / against
27 / 15
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
64.3%
xG for / against
1.91 / 0.64
Defense pair

94:30 together · 8 games

xG share58.6%
Corsi for / against
96 / 74
Fenwick for / against
65 / 49
Corsi share
56.5%
Fenwick share
57.0%
xG for / against
3.85 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Boston Bruins

Jeremy Swayman 78.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jeremy Swayman?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.222
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.483
Team win pct before
-0.431
Days since last start
+0.426
Started last game
-0.313
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger 79.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jake Oettinger?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.204
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.500
Prev save pct
+0.465
Days since last start
+0.388
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
+0.355
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
140
Save %
92.9
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
32.9

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
104
Save %
96.2
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
2.95
xG differential / game
0.04

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
2.86
xG against / game
2.61
xG differential / game
0.25

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
47.1
Fenwick share (%)
48.0
Faceoff win %
52.9
Penalties / game
4.78

Shots / game: 25.4 · Shooting: 14.8% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Dallas Stars

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
55.9
Corsi share (%)
51.3
Fenwick share (%)
52.2
Faceoff win %
57.4
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
19Points15
0.731Points %0.625
49Goals for33
28Goals against25
21Goal differential8
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Boston Bruins BOS road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
7Games7
4Wins4
9Points8
4Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
7-2-1Record7-2-1
15Points15
41Goals for32
21Goals against19
20Goal differential13
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Boston Bruins BOS 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 4 wins
Total goals29 – 36
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.9 / 3.6
Shots per game28.4 / 32.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 31, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 6 16 - 23 View
Jan 20, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 6 18 - 37 View
Nov 14, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 7 25 - 38 View
Oct 24, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
5 - 2 32 - 27 View
Feb 19, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 4 46 - 30 View
Nov 6, 2023
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 29 - 37 View
Feb 14, 2023
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 37 - 31 View
Oct 25, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
1 - 3 31 - 29 View
Jan 30, 2022
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 6 26 - 29 View
Oct 16, 2021
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
1 - 3 28 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BOS DAL