Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 12, 2026.

January 12, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game. View final boxscore
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joseph Woll

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Jan 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
93.4
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
27.9

Trent Miner

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Jan 10

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
73
Save %
94.5
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
19.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.03
xG differential / game
0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
2.67
xG differential / game
0.86

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.7
Attempt share
46.0
Faceoff win %
56.1
Penalties / game
3.3

Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 14.8% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
70.9
Attempt share
56.0
Faceoff win %
55.1
Penalties / game
3.1

Shots / game: 33.7 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 34.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
8Points9
0.500Points %0.643
28Goals for31
28Goals against22
0Goal differential9
OT1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
3Games4
1Wins2
3Points5
1Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
3-3-2Record4-2-1
8Points9
28Goals for31
28Goals against22
0Goal differential9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 5 wins
Total goals38 – 34
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game3.8 / 3.4
Shots per game29.1 / 33.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 19, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 39 - 26 View
Mar 8, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 7 21 - 34 View
Feb 24, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 30 - 29 View
Jan 13, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 3 33 - 29 View
Mar 15, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 29 - 18 View
Dec 31, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
6 - 2 32 - 28 View
Jan 8, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 5 27 - 49 View
Dec 1, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 8 31 - 41 View
Dec 4, 2019
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 1 30 - 39 View
Nov 23, 2019
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 3 28 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.