Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for May 1, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for May 1, 2026.

May 1, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
at
Home

Montréal Canadiens

48-24-10
Model favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 58.7%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

58.7%
Fair American -142
Fair decimal 1.7
Best market -113 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 53.1%
Edge +5.6%
Expected value +10.6%
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

41.3%
Fair American +142
Fair decimal 2.42
Best market -101 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 50.2%
Edge -8.9%
Expected value -17.8%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
106Points106
0.646Points %0.646
290Goals for283
231Goals against256
59Goal differential27
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
41Games41
24Wins24
53Points50
37Goal differential10
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
5-5-0Record7-3-0
10Points14
26Goals for28
30Goals against24
-4Goal differential4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
Total goals37 – 32
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.7 / 3.2
Shots per game26.7 / 29.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 9, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 2 18 - 21 View
Mar 31, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 1 23 - 37 View
Dec 28, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 36 - 22 View
Dec 9, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 1 27 - 27 View
Feb 9, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 3 21 - 35 View
Jan 21, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 35 - 22 View
Dec 29, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 2 37 - 23 View
Apr 4, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
7 - 4 35 - 30 View
Mar 2, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 31 - 29 View
Dec 31, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 29 - 20 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL MTL