Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
42.4%
Fair American
+136
Fair decimal
2.36
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 3, 2027
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 3, 2027.
April 3, 2027
· 2:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Boston Bruins at 57.6%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Boston Bruins
57.6%
Fair American
-136
Fair decimal
1.74
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Apr 3, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 4-1
- Net units
- 2.79
- ROI
- 55.8%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.79
- ROI
- 29.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 4-0
- Net units
- 3.44
- ROI
- 86.1%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Boston Bruins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 17
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 50
- Save %
- 92.0
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 40.0
Jeremy Swayman
Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 17
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 140
- Save %
- 92.9
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 32.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 2.50
- xG differential / game
- 0.90
8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Boston Bruins
- xG for / game
- 2.99
- xG against / game
- 2.96
- xG differential / game
- 0.03
9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent usage
Combinations to know
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsBoston Bruins
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
8 / 8 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.4
- Attempt share
- 55.9
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.5
Shots / game: 30.9 · Shooting: 10.1% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Boston Bruins
9 / 9 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 53.0
- Attempt share
- 47.2
- Faceoff win %
- 52.9
- Penalties / game
- 4.78
Shots / game: 25.4 · Shooting: 14.8% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 14 |
| 0.750 | Points % | 0.778 |
| 25 | Goals for | 34 |
| 21 | Goals against | 19 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 15 |
| W2 | Current streak | W5 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
BOS home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 4 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 2 | Points | 6 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-0 | Record | 7-2-0 |
| 12 | Points | 14 |
| 25 | Goals for | 34 |
| 21 | Goals against | 19 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 15 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
8 wins
10
games reviewed
BOS
2 wins
Total goals33 – 26
Goal differential
+7
/
-7
Goals per game3.3 / 2.6
Shots per game31.3 / 26.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Boston Bruins
|
2 - 1 | 24 - 20 | View |
| Apr 4, 2026 |
Boston Bruins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 22 - 23 | View |
| Feb 1, 2026 |
Boston Bruins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 6 | 34 - 46 | View |
| Oct 13, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Boston Bruins
|
4 - 3 | 23 - 33 | View |
| Mar 15, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Boston Bruins
|
6 - 2 | 40 - 12 | View |
| Mar 8, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 0 | 25 - 25 | View |
| Jan 14, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Boston Bruins
|
2 - 6 | 45 - 24 | View |
| Jan 9, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Mar 27, 2024 |
Boston Bruins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Feb 13, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Boston Bruins
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 38 | View |