Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 16, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 16, 2026.

October 16, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3-3-1

41.6%
at
Home

Colorado Avalanche

4-2-1

58.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 58.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

41.6%
Fair American +140
Fair decimal 2.4
Best market +190 · BetRivers
Market implied 34.5%
Edge +7.1%
Expected value +20.6%
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

58.4%
Fair American -140
Fair decimal 1.71
Best market -198 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 66.4%
Edge -8.0%
Expected value -12.1%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 16, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Arturs Silovs 82.1%
Other eligible goalies
  • Sergei Murashov · 17.9%

Why Arturs Silovs?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.531
Prev save pct
+0.351
Started last game
+0.290
Won previous appearance
+0.286
Days since last start
+0.203
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 16, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Colorado Avalanche

Mackenzie Blackwood 88.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Mackenzie Blackwood?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.043
Days since last start
+0.362
Started last game
+0.341
Won previous appearance
+0.305
Team win pct before
-0.276
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 16, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 13

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
101
Save %
91.1
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
33.7

Scott Wedgewood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 14

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
51
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
23.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.48
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
0.38

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
2.34
xG differential / game
1.07

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
59.6
Attempt share
50.4
Faceoff win %
45.6
Penalties / game
3.14

Shots / game: 28.4 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 30.4 ft

Colorado Avalanche

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
62.0
Attempt share
53.4
Faceoff win %
48.6
Penalties / game
3.43

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 14.5% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
7Points9
0.500Points %0.643
25Goals for31
22Goals against22
3Goal differential9
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
4Games4
1Wins2
3Points5
2Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
3-3-1Record4-2-1
7Points9
25Goals for31
22Goals against22
3Goal differential9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 6 wins
Total goals33 – 35
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.3 / 3.5
Shots per game34.3 / 31.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 2 30 - 32 View
Mar 16, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
7 - 2 20 - 27 View
Mar 4, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 4 33 - 25 View
Dec 10, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 2 27 - 27 View
Mar 24, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 5 34 - 30 View
Oct 26, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 4 31 - 29 View
Mar 22, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 2 45 - 30 View
Feb 7, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 2 42 - 38 View
Apr 5, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 4 32 - 45 View
Apr 2, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 40 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT COL