Montréal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for May 3, 2026

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for May 3, 2026.

May 3, 2026 · 5:00 PM CST
Away

Montréal Canadiens

48-24-10
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
Model favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 62.5%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

37.5%
Fair American +167
Fair decimal 2.67
Best market +150 · Bovada
Market implied 40.0%
Edge -2.5%
Expected value -6.2%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

62.5%
Fair American -167
Fair decimal 1.6
Best market -162 · DraftKings
Market implied 61.8%
Edge +0.7%
Expected value +1.1%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
106Points106
0.646Points %0.646
283Goals for290
256Goals against231
27Goal differential59
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
41Games41
24Wins26
56Points53
17Goal differential22
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
7-3-0Record5-5-0
14Points10
28Goals for26
24Goals against30
4Goal differential-4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
Total goals32 – 37
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game3.2 / 3.7
Shots per game29.1 / 26.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 9, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 2 18 - 21 View
Mar 31, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 1 23 - 37 View
Dec 28, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 36 - 22 View
Dec 9, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 1 27 - 27 View
Feb 9, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 3 21 - 35 View
Jan 21, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 35 - 22 View
Dec 29, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 2 37 - 23 View
Apr 4, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
7 - 4 35 - 30 View
Mar 2, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 31 - 29 View
Dec 31, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 29 - 20 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL TBL